The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration will on Tuesday deliver its verdict on the South China Sea and the scramble for the world’s busiest shipping lanes. But Beijing has said it will reject the tribunal’s decision on the case brought by the Philippines, contesting China’s rapid development of artificial islands and bases on the reef.
The Philippines is just one of several southeast Asian states that lay claim to part of this key transit route, in a war of wills that has sparked fears of a military conflict that could disrupt global trade.
Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan are all involved in the territorial disputes, and Indonesian President Joko Widodo has instructed the military to increase maritime patrols over the waters off Natuna Islands in response to increasing tensions with China, which it claims has up to 20,000 militia
fishermen in the region.
The United States yesterday urged respect for the tribunal’s decision and recommended “all claimants to avoid provocative actions or statements.”
It said this would determine whether the region is ruled by law or “raw calculations of power.”
China has meanwhile expressed outrage at the “Freedom of Navigation” missions that the US and others have been conducting in the South China Sea and says America has no business intervening.
Washington says it is merely exercising its right to sail in international waters and has a stake in ensuring freedom of navigation and commerce in seas that carry more than half the world’s merchant fleet tonnage. Senior Pentagon official Abraham Denmark said the states were providing
critical support for diplomacy. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a joint news conference with UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon that China also wants a “peaceful resolution,” but the arbitration ruling would “only escalate the disputes and tensions.”
CHINA’S NOT LISTENING
The Chinese have been determinedly building runways, ports, observation posts and other installations on artificially enlarged islets to strengthen its claim to the vital trading route.
The huge engineering project to create “carrier-killer” fortresses on top of these islands is causing international concern.
In February, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies shared satellite images of high frequency radar, a bunker, a lighthouse and communication towers under construction on Cuarteron Reef, the southern most of a chain of the seven disputed Spratly Islands. China claims the construction work is purely for civilian use, but Gregory Poling from CSIS told news.com.au it would be “over the top” for non-military purposes in the region.
“It will increase China’s ability to patrol and monitor the South China Sea,” said Mr Poling, head of the CSIS Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative. “We’ll see these facilities come online over the course of a year. The effect is going to be exponential in increasing China’s power in the region. It will increase its ability to project power further south.”
Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, proposed dialogue with China following the court’s decision next week, suggesting discussions about issues such as setting up joint ventures for sharing resources in the disputed waterway.
That looks unlikely at this point.
Last weekend China announced it would seal-off an large swath of the contested sea for military exercises in the seven days leading up to the announcement.
And Chinese media on Tuesday said Beijing is ready for a “military confrontation” with the United States in the region.
IS CHINA ‘GOING ROGUE’?
China’s People’s Daily newspaper, Beijing’s official mouthpiece, warned the US of a “price” to pay for its “interference” in the South China Sea.
“There is a bottom line with every issue, and a price will be paid if that line is crossed,” said an editorial. “If the United States, regardless of the cost, chooses the path of ‘brinkmanship’ that pressures and intimidates others, there will be only one result, that is, that the US bears all the responsibility for possibly further heightening tensions in the South China Sea.
“China has a solid-rock position over safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It will not want anything that does not belong to it, but it will ensure that every inch of land it owns is safe and sound.”
In February, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, called on the US to “stop sensationalizing the South China Sea issue, stop hyping up tensions and work constructively for regional peace and stability.” She added: “China’s deployment of limited defense facilities on its own
territory is its exercise of self-defense right to which a sovereign state is entitled under international law. It has nothing to do with militarization. It is something that comes naturally, and is completely justified and lawful.”
Beijing’s aggressive stance on opposition to its territorial claims have put the Chinese population on edge, and left no room for a back down.
WHY IT MATTERS
The case at The Hague was launched by the Philippines in 2013 — months after China gained de facto control of the rocky outcrop Scarborough Shoal just over 100 nautical miles from the Philippines’ coast.
The Philippines has asked the court to rule on several issues, including China’s controversial “nine-dash line” — a boundary that carves out the majority of the South China Sea for itself.
This growth in military capabilities will make it harder for not only China’s smaller neighbours to operate in the area, but for the US, Japan and Australia. It will give the Asian superpower control over planes and vessels in the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It is a rich fishing ground and is believed to hold substantial oil and gas reserves.
The sea spans around 3.5 million square kilometres and is bordered by Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. It is vital to Australia’s interests, carrying the majority of its trade to China, Japan and the Republic of Korea.
The Chinese radar will work like Australia’s Jindalee over-the-horizon system, bouncing radar waves off the ionosphere. They will be able to spot US stealth aircraft such as the B2 Spirit stealth bomber, F-22 Raptor and the F-35, so they can send in fighters with advanced infra-red seekers.
“It’s more advanced than what anybody else has in the South China Sea,” said Mr Poling. “Vietnam occupies 27 islands but in a far less sophisticated way.
“China has been pretty clear it aims to establish de facto, if not legal, control over the area.”
While other countries may be able to remain on nearby islands, their ability to resupply and fish in the region will depend on China, and mineral and fuel resources could becoming bargaining chips for the state as it gains economic and industrial power.
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